# Baseline: Demographics → Δlog(REER) — Change

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → Δlog REER | d_log_reer | 3,040 | 100 | 0.008 |
| B2: Z → Δlog REER + BS | d_log_reer | 3,013 | 99 | 0.011 |
| B3: age ratios → Δlog REER | d_log_reer | 3,013 | 99 | 0.010 |
| B4: OECD Z → Δlog REER | d_log_reer | 1,161 | 37 | 0.040 |
| B5: non-OECD Z → Δlog REER | d_log_reer | 1,852 | 62 | 0.011 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1: Z → Δlog REER | Z_1 | -0.0816 | 0.0922 | 0.3758 |  |
| B1: Z → Δlog REER | Z_2 | 0.0155 | 0.0135 | 0.2510 |  |
| B1: Z → Δlog REER | Z_3 | -0.0007 | 0.0005 | 0.1904 |  |
| B2: Z → Δlog REER + BS | Z_1 | -0.0738 | 0.0858 | 0.3893 |  |
| B2: Z → Δlog REER + BS | Z_2 | 0.0149 | 0.0124 | 0.2305 |  |
| B2: Z → Δlog REER + BS | Z_3 | -0.0007 | 0.0005 | 0.1615 |  |
| B2: Z → Δlog REER + BS | log_gdp_pc | -0.0029 | 0.0031 | 0.3491 |  |
| B3: age ratios → Δlog REER | old_dep | -0.0040 | 0.0301 | 0.8939 |  |
| B3: age ratios → Δlog REER | youth_dep | -0.0448 | 0.0154 | 0.0036 | *** |
| B3: age ratios → Δlog REER | log_gdp_pc | -0.0043 | 0.0031 | 0.1667 |  |
| B4: OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_1 | -0.3787 | 0.1701 | 0.0262 | ** |
| B4: OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_2 | 0.0527 | 0.0230 | 0.0220 | ** |
| B4: OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_3 | -0.0020 | 0.0009 | 0.0208 | ** |
| B4: OECD Z → Δlog REER | log_gdp_pc | -0.0191 | 0.0057 | 0.0009 | *** |
| B5: non-OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_1 | -0.1076 | 0.1146 | 0.3481 |  |
| B5: non-OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_2 | 0.0205 | 0.0170 | 0.2277 |  |
| B5: non-OECD Z → Δlog REER | Z_3 | -0.0009 | 0.0007 | 0.1723 |  |
| B5: non-OECD Z → Δlog REER | log_gdp_pc | -0.0018 | 0.0041 | 0.6569 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*